Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
24.6 pt net edge, forecast-v4, strong evidence, coherent group=false. No actor/whale overlay.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Forecast confidence below 0.60 entry threshold.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Hard constraint conflict: no entry.
REJECTED_CONSTRAINT_CONFLICT
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Forecast confidence below 0.60 entry threshold.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Forecast confidence below 0.60 entry threshold.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Evidence quality is below moderate.
THIN_EVIDENCE
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Cash benchmark. No-trade control; equity stays at starting capital.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Forecast confidence below 0.60 entry threshold.
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Hard constraint conflict: no entry.
REJECTED_CONSTRAINT_CONFLICT
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Net edge below 4 pt threshold after spread and costs
NET_EDGE_BELOW_MIN
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Identifiability is below the evidence threshold.
WEAK_IDENTIFIABILITY
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · live