This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.430 · ask 0.440
Price history
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No15 ptsYes15 pts
Market flow
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Notable actors
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Evidence
Source quality
Strong
Identifiability
Strong
Coverage
3 of 3 desired categories
Sources
4
Freshness
0.14
Missing
none
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Evidence timeline
2026-08-19 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Active
2026-08-19 · 10-year Treasury yield · Contextual
2026-08-05 · Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Active
2026-07-14 · Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Active
2026-07-08 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Active
2026-07-01 · CPI (all urban consumers) · Active
2026-07-01 · Federal funds effective rate · Active
2026-07-01 · Unemployment rate · Active
E1 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Feb 24Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on January 20 and 28, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
E2 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.20 · Apr 1Gross domestic product · GDP is lagging and weakly suited to a near-term FOMC decision.
E3 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Apr 14Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on February 9 and March 18, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
· contextual · suit 0.05 · May 26
Signals
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
growth
+ strongly positive
GDP is a lagging quarterly growth observation. It is not a direct hawkish/dovish meeting signal.
inflation
+ moderately hawkish
Rising inflation is hawkish pressure, all else equal. This is a trend, not a surprise versus consensus.
policy rate
· mildly uncertain
This is the current policy rate level/trend, not a forecast of the next meeting move.
labor
+ moderately hawkish
Falling unemployment may contribute hawkish pressure, all else equal. Surprise versus consensus is unknown.
yields
− mildly dovish
Yield moves are background. They do not identify a 25 vs 50 bps decision by themselves.
Related markets
Nested and exclusive relationships. Coherence is a deterministic check, not a model judgment.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Independent probability
50.0%
model
Market probability
54.5%
quote, Stage B
Estimated edge
-4.5 pts
M/ARC
Decision
PASS
M/ARC
Model confidence
60.0%
model
Evidence quality
Strong · 0.76
source quality
Identifiability
Strong · 0.65
event coverage
Coherence
Constraint conflict
related markets
Forecast confidence
47.4%
M/ARC combination
Status
recorded
record
Constraint conflict. The original forecast is preserved. Hard subset/horizon conflict: P(source)=0.60 > P(target)=0.55.
E4 · Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E5 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · May 28Jefferson, Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E6 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · May 29Bowman, A Framework for Practical Monetary Policy Decision Making · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E7 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · Jun 1Powell, Acceptance Remarks · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E8 · FRED · active · suit 0.40 · Jul 1CPI (all urban consumers) · CPI/PCE informs inflation pressure, not the exact hike size.
E9 · FRED · active · suit 0.90 · Jul 1Federal funds effective rate · Current policy rate is the starting point for a meeting decision.
E10 · FRED · active · suit 0.35 · Jul 1Unemployment rate · Labor trend informs stance, not the exact 25 vs 50 bps split.
E11 · Federal Reserve · active · suit 0.85 · Jul 8Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Current-cycle minutes is meeting-specific.
E12 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.15 · Jul 14Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Official but not a meeting statement, minutes, speech, or SEP.
E13 · Federal Reserve speeches · active · suit 0.95 · Aug 5Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Current-cycle speech is meeting-specific.
E14 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.40 · Aug 1910-year Treasury yield · Treasury yields are background, not meeting-specific identification.
E15 · Federal Reserve · active · suit 0.85 · 46h agoMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 · Current-cycle minutes is meeting-specific.
E16 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E17 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E18 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E19 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E20 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E21 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-09Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
evidence-v2 · 7d874eaa7808
Base rate
40.0%
model
Base-rate reason
No strong historical base rate for Fed rate hikes in 2026 is available, as the event is future-oriented and dependent on economic conditions that are currently evolving.
Adjustments
Current inflation trends are rising, which typically exerts hawkish pressure (E8). Unemployment is falling, which may also contribute to a hawkish stance (E10). The current federal funds effective rate is stable, indicating no immediate changes (E9).
Evidence citations
E8, E9, E10, E11, E15
Why M/ARC differs
The estimate reflects a balance of rising inflation and falling unemployment, which typically support a rate hike, against the backdrop of a stable current policy rate. The lack of a strong historical base rate for rate hikes in 2026 lowers confidence in the estimate.
Uncertainty
Economic conditions may change significantly before 2026. The Federal Reserve's decisions are influenced by a wide range of unpredictable factors.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · macroeconomics · 7d874eaa7808 · 21 Aug 2026, 15:31 UTC
Forecast history
21 Aug 2026, 15:31 UTC · 50.0% · PASS · forecast-v4
21 Aug 2026, 15:31 UTC · 25.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v2
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC · 55.0% · PASS · forecast-v4
18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC · 65.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v3-joint
18 Aug 2026, 17:53 UTC · 65.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v3
