What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Volume

$2.7M

Liquidity

$55.0K

Spread

0.010

Closes

01 Jan 2027 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC

External ID

701496

Event

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	25.5%	0.250	0.260	0.010
No	74.5%	0.740	0.750	0.010

condition 0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.250 · ask 0.260

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes23 ptsNo23 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Strong
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 1 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: event-specific reporting

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 30.0%; model
Market probability: 24.5%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: +5.5 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 40.0%; model
Evidence quality: Strong · 0.88; source quality
Identifiability: Weak · 0.10; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 18.4%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no established historical base rate for Bitcoin reaching a specific price point by a set date, particularly for a target as high as $100,000 by December 31, 2026.