MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$7.7M
Liquidity
$200.2K
Spread
0.010
Closes
01 Jan 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC
External ID
1163699
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 74.5% | 0.740 | 0.750 | 0.010 |
| Yes | 25.5% | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.010 |
condition 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.740 · ask 0.750
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Provider issues: political: No high-quality polling provider configured; political evidence categories marked missing.
evidence-v2 · 9b3d634a0d5a
Legislation in the U.S. Congress has a historically low passage rate, especially for new bills.
No current evidence of bipartisan support or momentum for H.R.3633, which may hinder its passage.
question, description, event
Given the historical context of U.S. legislation, the base rate for new bills passing is low. The lack of current evidence regarding the bill's progress or support leads to a modest adjustment downward, resulting in a final probability of 0.10.
Potential changes in political climate affecting legislative priorities Unforeseen events that could influence the bill's passage
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · politics · 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC