M/ARC

MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS

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Evidence

evidence-v1

$989.91

Cash

$932.61

Exposure

$65.00

Realized P&L

+$8.46

Unrealized P&L

-$7.70

Return

-1.00%

Max drawdown

-1.07%

Open

3

Trades

9

Decisions

760

ENTER/ADD

51

PASS

473

REJECTED

87

Equity

Open positions

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes · $20.00 · -$3.42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No · $25.00 · +$2.45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes · $20.00 · -$6.73

Completed trades

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC · SELL · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · 0.159 · +$9.23
21 Aug 2026, 17:01 UTC · BUY · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · 0.171 · —
21 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · BUY · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · 0.003 · —
21 Aug 2026, 09:01 UTC · SELL · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · 0.159 · -$0.77
21 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC · BUY · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · 0.171 · —
21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · BUY · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · 0.003 · —
21 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC · BUY · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · 0.291 · —
21 Aug 2026, 06:31 UTC · BUY · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · 0.012 · —
19 Aug 2026, 01:33 UTC · BUY · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · 0.012 · —

Decisions