MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Fed Decision in September?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$7.7M
Liquidity
$999.8K
Spread
0.001
Closes
16 Sept 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC
External ID
2252246
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.6% | 0.995 | 0.996 | 0.001 |
condition 0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.004 · ask 0.005
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
Nested and exclusive relationships. Coherence is a deterministic check, not a model judgment.
mutually exclusive · hard · coherent
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
M/ARC 25% · related 5%
mutually exclusive · hard · coherent
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
M/ARC 20% · related 40%
mutually exclusive · hard · coherent
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
M/ARC 5% · related 20%
mutually exclusive · hard · coherent
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
M/ARC 25% · related 100%
subset of · hard · Constraint conflict
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
M/ARC 55% · related 60%
Hard subset/horizon conflict: P(source)=0.60 > P(target)=0.55.
These probabilities were estimated jointly for FOMC 2026-09. Partial partition; OTHER is the unmodeled residual.
exclusive_partial · identifiability strong 0.65 · source quality 0.76
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Constraint conflict. The original forecast is preserved (ATTENTION stored, shown as PASS). Exclusive named outcomes sum to 0.30 <= 1.
evidence-v2 · 02229b0f846c
Historical data shows that significant interest rate changes (50+ bps) by the Fed are relatively uncommon, especially in a single meeting context.
No specific evidence provided to suggest an imminent increase of 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting.
question, description, event
Given the historical rarity of large interest rate changes in a single meeting and the absence of current economic indicators suggesting such a move, the probability of a 50+ bps increase is estimated at 25%.
Economic conditions leading up to the meeting could change significantly. Unexpected global economic events could influence Fed decisions.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · macroeconomics · 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC