MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Volume
$5.1M
Liquidity
$148.2K
Spread
0.020
Closes
01 Jan 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC
External ID
701502
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9.0% | 0.080 | 0.100 | 0.020 |
| No | 91.0% | 0.900 | 0.920 | 0.020 |
condition 0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.080 · ask 0.100
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
No relevant historical data or base rates for Bitcoin dipping to a specific price point by a future date are provided in the evidence.
evidence-v2 · 4ee8d5f293ab
E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6
The lack of active evidence and specific market data leads to a low confidence in the estimate. The final probability reflects a modest expectation of a price dip based on the resolution criteria, but uncertainty remains high due to the absence of supporting evidence.
Weak identifiability of the event due to lack of specific price trend data. No active evidence to support current market conditions or sentiment. Potential volatility in cryptocurrency markets that could affect price movements.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · crypto · 4ee8d5f293ab · 21 Aug 2026, 06:31 UTC