Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Volume

$7.6M

Liquidity

$395.6K

Spread

0.010

Closes

30 Sept 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC

External ID

1130012

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	70.5%	0.700	0.710	0.010
No	29.5%	0.290	0.300	0.010

condition 0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.700 · ask 0.710

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes205 ptsNo205 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.45
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-20 · Corps of Engineers Modernizes Historic Fort Sill Barracks · Active
2026-08-19 · Zambia: Arrests and detention of political opponents following election raises concern · Active
2026-08-18 · United Nations Command Pays Tribute to Fallen Soldiers During 50th Commemoration of Attack · Active
2026-08-17 · Protecting our ‘most vital infrastructure’: Pushing back on desertification · Active
2026-08-14 · Centcom Launches First-Ever Multinational Attack Drone Task Force · Active
2026-08-14 · 900 obstacles and counting: West Bank families trapped as aid access shrinks · Active
2026-08-13 · Southcom Mission Shifts to Protecting Sovereignty of U.S., Partner Nations · Active

E1 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 13Southcom Mission Shifts to Protecting Sovereignty of U.S., Partner Nations · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E2 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 14900 obstacles and counting: West Bank families trapped as aid access shrinks · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E3 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 14Centcom Launches First-Ever Multinational Attack Drone Task Force · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.

Signals

Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.

geopolitical status: + moderately escalation; Language is consistent with escalation. This is a text heuristic, not a verified military assessment.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 65.0%; model
Market probability: 70.5%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: -5.5 pts; M/ARC
Decision: ATTENTION; M/ARC
Model confidence: 60.0%; model
Evidence quality: Moderate · 0.69; source quality
Identifiability: Strong · 1.00; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 60.0%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

No specific base rate for United Russia's performance in upcoming elections is available in the evidence provided, as it lacks polling data or historical performance metrics relevant to this election cycle.