Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Volume

$59.3M

Liquidity

$1.0M

Spread

0.010

Closes

31 Dec 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC

External ID

665374

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	16.5%	0.160	0.170	0.010
No	83.5%	0.830	0.840	0.010

condition 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.160 · ask 0.170

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes192 ptsNo192 pts

Market flow

Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.

YES flow: $157.6
NO flow: $1.1K
Whale imbalance: —
Large trades: 1
Unique actors: 6

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

0xdf17…97d1
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x0845…6b6f
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x6978…08d8
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
0xc682…17bb
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x1d0f…2988
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x93fb…3e4a
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling Yes

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.60
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-20 · Corps of Engineers Modernizes Historic Fort Sill Barracks · Active
2026-08-20 · USS George Washington Celebrates Historic Aircraft Milestone · Active
2026-08-17 · Yemen: Türk alarmed by rising civilian toll, urges restraint · Active
2026-08-14 · Meth trafficking across Middle East becoming more advanced, UNODC warns · Active

E1 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 14Meth trafficking across Middle East becoming more advanced, UNODC warns · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E2 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 17Yemen: Türk alarmed by rising civilian toll, urges restraint · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E3 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 13h agoUSS George Washington Celebrates Historic Aircraft Milestone · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E4 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 12h agoCorps of Engineers Modernizes Historic Fort Sill Barracks · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.

Signals

Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.

geopolitical status: + moderately escalation; Language is consistent with escalation. This is a text heuristic, not a verified military assessment.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 15.0%; model
Market probability: 16.5%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: -1.5 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 50.0%; model
Evidence quality: Moderate · 0.72; source quality
Identifiability: Strong · 1.00; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 50.0%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no clear historical base rate for U.S. invasions of countries similar to Iran within the specified timeframe, making it difficult to establish a reference-class base rate.