Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Volume

$17.4M

Liquidity

$325.3K

Spread

0.001

Closes

07 Nov 2028 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC

External ID

559668

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	2.8%	0.027	0.028	0.001
No	97.3%	0.972	0.973	0.001

condition 0x36db77c539bcc8c7bf0686c1b99f30c5a5eed1f53d3b3a27a071550c81f83701

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.027 · ask 0.028

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes2 ptsNo2 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Thin
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2028-11-07Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 15.0%; model
Market probability: 2.8%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: +12.2 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 25.0%; model
Evidence quality: Thin · 0.65; source quality
Identifiability: Weak · 0.08; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 11.2%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

No relevant base rate for Mark Kelly's candidacy is provided in the evidence, as there are no polling data, candidate status updates, or endorsements available.