← ReportsGenerated 2026-08-21T20:17:51.300Z · cutoff 2026-08-21T20:17:20.325Z · America/Los_Angeles
🌱 M/ARC was born on August 20, 2026.
Its first live paper experiment, `parallax-live-001`, began the evening of August 18, 2026.
Control was flat today, driven by 10 paper fills. The sample is still too small to infer an edge. Control $0.00 on the day. Largest missed opportunity (hindsight price movement): Strategy PASS (FLOW_QUALITY); later price moved 0.0 pts in the forecasted direction. Hindsight only — decision was not rewritten.
📊 Portfolio
| Strategy | Equity | Day | Total | Cash | Exposure |
|---|
| Combined | $990.04 | -$8.00 | -$9.96 | $923.38 | $65.00 |
| Control | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
| Evidence | $990.04 | -$8.00 | -$9.96 | $923.38 | $65.00 |
| Flow | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
| Forecast | $1,000.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1,000.00 | $0.00 |
🎯 Trades
10 entries · 2 exits · 0 settlements · 8 open
- Best: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? $0.00
- Worst: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? -$0.77
- Largest: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? $25.00
🧠 Decisions
ENTER 74EXIT 2PASS 1794ATTENTION 568REJECTED 262
Most common rejection: REJECTED_CONSTRAINT_CONFLICT
Largest missed opportunity (hindsight price movement): Strategy PASS (FLOW_QUALITY); later price moved 0.0 pts in the forecasted direction. Hindsight only — decision was not rewritten.
🔮 Forecasts
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: 25% (forecast-v4)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: 15% (forecast-v2)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 25% (forecast-v4)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 3% (forecast-v2)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?: 50% (forecast-v4)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?: 25% (forecast-v2)
Model vs market
- Fed rate hike in 2026?: 25% model vs 55% market
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?: 25% model vs 3% market
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: 25% model vs 6% market
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: 5% model vs 25% market
- Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?: 15% model vs 0% market
🐋 Flow
- Unique actors 7.0× the recent median.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: top actor 100%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: top actor 100%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: top actor 100%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: top actor 98%
⚠️ Anomalies
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? rejected 128 times.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? rejected 128 times.
- Fed rate hike in 2026? rejected 40 times.
large edge vs subsequent return: weak association (r=0.00)
confidence vs P&L: weak association (r=0.00)
