MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Next French Presidential Election
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$5.7M
Liquidity
$481.1K
Spread
0.001
Closes
30 Apr 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC
External ID
679035
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.9% | 0.998 | 0.999 | 0.001 |
condition 0x34ed4ad7a7825f168e1084f53e8f60a161579d783b2740e50aa52f710925a136
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.001 · ask 0.002
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no relevant base rate available for Ségolène Royal's chances in the 2027 French presidential election, as current evidence does not provide polling data, candidate status, or other indicators of her viability as a candidate.
Provider issues: political: No high-quality polling provider configured; political evidence categories marked missing.
evidence-v2 · 66bcfd34c7d3
E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6
Given the lack of active evidence regarding Ségolène Royal's candidacy and the absence of polling or endorsements, I estimate a low probability of her winning the election. The thin evidence leads to a low confidence in this estimate.
lack of current polling data unknown status of Ségolène Royal's campaign absence of endorsements or fundraising information
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · politics · 66bcfd34c7d3 · 21 Aug 2026, 09:31 UTC