MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15.4M
Liquidity
$417.5K
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
559663
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.1% | 0.011 | 0.012 | 0.001 |
| No | 98.9% | 0.988 | 0.989 | 0.001 |
condition 0xe883f2fda25a605a184bb5fe583afce6cc21ea0b348b6a3728ec3067553c548d
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.011 · ask 0.012
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no historical base rate provided for J.B. Pritzker's candidacy or the 2028 Democratic nomination process.
question, description, event, resolution_source, category, closes_at, named_outcome, complement_outcome
Without specific historical data or current polling information, it is difficult to assess Pritzker's chances. The estimate reflects a low probability of winning the nomination, considering the uncertainty surrounding his candidacy and the lack of evidence supporting a strong position.
Potential emergence of other strong candidates Changes in voter sentiment leading up to the election Pritzker's ability to campaign effectively
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC