MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Volume
$192.6K
Liquidity
$11.8K
Spread
0.060
Closes
19 Aug 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Updated
19 Aug 2026, 10:53 UTC
External ID
3670532
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 17.0% | 0.140 | 0.200 | 0.060 |
| Down | 83.0% | 0.800 | 0.860 | 0.060 |
condition 0x58382ef65aa46d8c05d4dbb5f84f3812c8dcaaa36f69e0dd61f041165d30bebf
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.140 · ask 0.200
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast