MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10.9M
Liquidity
$360.8K
Spread
0.010
Closes
31 Dec 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 09:01 UTC
External ID
666861
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.5% | 0.050 | 0.060 | 0.010 |
| No | 94.5% | 0.940 | 0.950 | 0.010 |
condition 0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.050 · ask 0.060
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
No relevant base rate exists for Trump's potential resignation or removal before 2027, as this is a unique political situation without historical precedent in the evidence provided.
Provider issues: political: No high-quality polling provider configured; political evidence categories marked missing.
evidence-v2 · 4b1a1bc9ca8d
E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6
Given the lack of active evidence and the absence of polling or political context, I estimate a low probability of Trump being out as President before 2027. The resolution criteria are clear, but without current indicators or pressures, the confidence in this estimate is low.
Lack of current polling data on Trump's approval and political viability. Absence of information on potential political maneuvers or pressures that could lead to resignation or removal.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v4 · politics · 4b1a1bc9ca8d · 21 Aug 2026, 06:02 UTC