MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$26.8M
Liquidity
$311.6K
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 16:46 UTC
External ID
559652
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15.7% | 0.156 | 0.157 | 0.001 |
| No | 84.4% | 0.843 | 0.844 | 0.001 |
condition 0x0f49db97f71c68b1e42a6d16e3de93d85dbf7d4148e3f018eb79e88554be9f75
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.156 · ask 0.157
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Selling Yes
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large Yes
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large Yes
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · Large No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling Yes
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Mixed
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no historical base rate available for a specific individual winning a future Democratic presidential nomination, especially for an election that is several years away.
question, description, event, resolution_source, category, closes_at, named_outcome, complement_outcome
Given the lack of historical context and specific evidence regarding Gavin Newsom's candidacy, the estimate is based on a low probability of winning the nomination, adjusted for the uncertainty of future political dynamics.
Potential emergence of strong challengers within the Democratic Party. Changes in public opinion and political landscape leading up to the 2028 election.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC