What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Volume

$1.8M

Liquidity

$96.8K

Spread

0.010

Closes

01 Jan 2027 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 18:31 UTC

External ID

1339768

Event

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	6.5%	0.060	0.070	0.010
No	93.5%	0.930	0.940	0.010

condition 0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.060 · ask 0.070

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes12 ptsNo12 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Strong
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 1 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: event-specific reporting

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

Run npm run forecast