MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Brazil Presidential Election
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8.7M
Liquidity
$526.0K
Spread
0.010
Closes
04 Oct 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
601819
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63.5% | 0.630 | 0.640 | 0.010 |
| No | 36.5% | 0.360 | 0.370 | 0.010 |
condition 0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.630 · ask 0.640
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast