Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$24.8M

Liquidity

$729.3K

Spread

0.010

Closes

31 Dec 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

18 Aug 2026, 05:43 UTC

External ID

663583

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	6.5%	0.060	0.070	0.010
No	93.5%	0.930	0.940	0.010

condition 0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.060 · ask 0.070

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes170 ptsNo170 pts

Market flow

Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.

YES flow: $4.6
NO flow: $0.0
Whale imbalance: —
Large trades: 2
Unique actors: 2

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

0x9d73…216b
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0xf0cb…4e22
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large Yes
0x8768…dd9b
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x335d…c9c3
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
0xdae2…d51f
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
0x1401…9b4d
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.95
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-18 · United Nations Command Pays Tribute to Fallen Soldiers During 50th Commemoration of Attack · Active
2026-08-18 · One War Department Unit Takes Next Step in Legacy of Innovation · Active
2026-08-18 · Gaza: Only three per cent of cropland available to grow food · Active
2026-08-18 · Colombia earthquake: UN ramps up aid for 100,000 people · Active

E1 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · 8h agoGaza: Only three per cent of cropland available to grow food · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E2 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · 8h agoColombia earthquake: UN ramps up aid for 100,000 people · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E3 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 6h agoOne War Department Unit Takes Next Step in Legacy of Innovation · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E4 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 2h agoUnited Nations Command Pays Tribute to Fallen Soldiers During 50th Commemoration of Attack · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.

Signals

Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.

geopolitical status: + moderately escalation; Language is consistent with escalation. This is a text heuristic, not a verified military assessment.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

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