Xi Jinping out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$12.3M

Liquidity

$237.4K

Spread

0.002

Closes

31 Dec 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

20 Aug 2026, 00:42 UTC

External ID

559651

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	4.2%	0.041	0.043	0.002
No	95.8%	0.957	0.959	0.002

condition 0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.041 · ask 0.043

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes3 ptsNo3 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.84
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-18 · USS Essex Hosts Tiger Cruise on Return to San Diego · Active
2026-08-18 · Army Develops Ultra-Light Vehicle for Changing Battlefields · Active
2026-08-18 · Lebanon: 860,000 displaced people have returned home, but humanitarian crisis remains ‘immense’ · Active
2026-08-18 · What’s journalism worth in disasters and emergencies? A lot, says a new UN report · Active

E1 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · 23h agoLebanon: 860,000 displaced people have returned home, but humanitarian crisis remains ‘immense’ · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E2 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · 23h agoWhat’s journalism worth in disasters and emergencies? A lot, says a new UN report · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E3 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 15h agoArmy Develops Ultra-Light Vehicle for Changing Battlefields · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E4 · U.S. Department of Defense · active · suit 0.80 · 13h agoUSS Essex Hosts Tiger Cruise on Return to San Diego · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 15.0%; model
Market probability: 4.2%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: +10.8 pts; M/ARC
Decision: ATTENTION; M/ARC
Model confidence: 40.0%; model
Evidence quality: Moderate · 0.78; source quality
Identifiability: Strong · 1.00; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 40.0%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no relevant historical data or base rate available for Xi Jinping's removal from power, making it difficult to establish a reference class for this event.