MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$26.0M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
561250
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.4% | 0.993 | 0.994 | 0.001 |
condition 0x68e3c4e0dd8f82d010060032006fd157401b0bd8e04bd2953ae293e31eb99bf6
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.006 · ask 0.007
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.1 pts · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no historical base rate available for a specific individual like Elon Musk winning a presidential election, especially one that is several years away.
question, description, event
Given the lack of historical precedent for Elon Musk running for president and the absence of any current evidence of his candidacy or public support, the probability of him winning is low. However, since he is a prominent figure, a small probability is assigned.
Uncertainty about Musk's decision to run for president. Potential competition from established political figures. Public perception and support for Musk as a candidate.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC