MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8.3M
Liquidity
$2.5M
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC
External ID
559696
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.9% | 0.998 | 0.999 | 0.001 |
condition 0x6685b25cc7c89032efcdf81eb27fdc6bbf04a3e4299bcd99c9f3d62c8471001e
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.001 · ask 0.002
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
No historical base rate is provided for Graham Platner's candidacy or the 2028 Democratic nomination process.
Provider issues: political: No high-quality polling provider configured; political evidence categories marked missing.
evidence-v2 · 164799a9de14
question, description, event
Without specific evidence regarding Graham Platner's candidacy or the competitive landscape for the 2028 Democratic nomination, the estimate is based on a very low probability of him winning the nomination, adjusted for the lack of information.
Lack of information on Graham Platner's political influence or support. Uncertainty regarding other candidates who may enter the race. The long time frame until the election may introduce many changes.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · politics · 21 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC