MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Volume
$179.9K
Liquidity
$36.4K
Spread
0.010
Closes
20 Aug 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Updated
20 Aug 2026, 00:42 UTC
External ID
3701461
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 80.5% | 0.800 | 0.810 | 0.010 |
| Down | 19.5% | 0.190 | 0.200 | 0.010 |
condition 0xcb25a14e8d545a87fc50ba30d1ece227d72e64a98d1d4ff62268fd31064205fc
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.800 · ask 0.810
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast