Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$19.3M

Liquidity

$613.7K

Spread

0.010

Closes

31 Dec 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

18 Aug 2026, 07:41 UTC

External ID

560317

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	7.5%	0.070	0.080	0.010
No	92.5%	0.920	0.930	0.010

condition 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.070 · ask 0.080

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes5 ptsNo5 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.23
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-14 · Meth trafficking across Middle East becoming more advanced, UNODC warns · Active
2026-08-12 · Migrant deaths climb sharply in 2026, new UN data shows · Active
2026-08-07 · Boys & Girls Clubs Honor Military Youth · Contextual

E1 · U.S. Department of Defense · contextual · suit 0.10 · Aug 7Boys & Girls Clubs Honor Military Youth · Stale geopolitics item kept as context.
E2 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 12Migrant deaths climb sharply in 2026, new UN data shows · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E3 · United Nations News · active · suit 0.80 · Aug 14Meth trafficking across Middle East becoming more advanced, UNODC warns · Official geopolitics source with usable freshness.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

Run npm run forecast