Presidential Election Winner 2028

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Volume

$15.5M

Liquidity

$458.6K

Spread

0.006

Closes

07 Nov 2028 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC

External ID

561229

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	21.5%	0.212	0.218	0.006
No	78.5%	0.782	0.788	0.006

condition 0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.212 · ask 0.218

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes3 ptsNo3 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 5.0%; model
Market probability: 21.1%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: -16.1 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 30.0%; model
Evidence quality: Thin; source quality
Identifiability: —; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 30.0%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no historical base rate provided for JD Vance's chances in the 2028 election, as it is too far in the future and no relevant polling or candidate status is supplied.