MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3.1M
Liquidity
$275.6K
Spread
0.010
Closes
31 Dec 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 12:02 UTC
External ID
682705
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 71.5% | 0.710 | 0.720 | 0.010 |
| Yes | 28.5% | 0.280 | 0.290 | 0.010 |
condition 0x7586a96520578acaaaa4ea84a2582f197f84255da1f3392a7aa300386c187b37
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.710 · ask 0.720
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
Provider issues: geopolitics: U.S. Department of State: U.S. Department of State feed returned no parseable items
evidence-v2 · 5dbd46e013a2
Historical data shows that incumbents or prominent political figures often have a significant chance of being re-elected or appointed, but the outcome can be influenced by various factors including political dynamics and public sentiment.
No specific evidence provided to suggest Netanyahu's current political strength or public support, which could significantly affect his chances.
question, description, event
Given the historical base rate for prominent political figures and incumbents, a base rate of 0.20 was established. However, due to the lack of specific evidence regarding Netanyahu's current political situation, confidence in this estimate is low.
Potential for early elections Changes in public opinion before the election Emergence of strong challengers
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · geopolitics · 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC