
MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1.6M
Liquidity
$96.4K
Spread
0.010
Closes
31 Dec 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 16:46 UTC
External ID
1796138
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10.5% | 0.100 | 0.110 | 0.010 |
| No | 89.5% | 0.890 | 0.900 | 0.010 |
condition 0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.100 · ask 0.110
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast