
MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Israel closes its airspace by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1.2M
Liquidity
$118.9K
Spread
0.007
Closes
15 Jul 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 05:43 UTC
External ID
2730712
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.9% | 0.045 | 0.052 | 0.007 |
| No | 95.2% | 0.948 | 0.955 | 0.007 |
condition 0x12aa595f4883b1a856dcf8155b87e89a8d098b5ad8a7781c75804fd13d166718
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.045 · ask 0.052
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