What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Volume

$2.3M

Liquidity

$19.7K

Spread

0.001

Closes

01 Jan 2027 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC

External ID

701552

Event

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

What price will Ethereum hit before 2027?

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	13.1%	0.130	0.131	0.001
No	87.0%	0.869	0.870	0.001

condition 0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.130 · ask 0.131

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes29 ptsNo29 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Strong
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 1 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: event-specific reporting

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2027-01-01Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 25.0%; model
Market probability: 17.8%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: +7.1 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 40.0%; model
Evidence quality: Strong · 0.88; source quality
Identifiability: Weak · 0.10; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 18.4%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no relevant historical data or base rate available for Ethereum dipping to a specific price point by a future date, as the evidence provided does not include past price trends or similar events.