MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$37.2M
Liquidity
$725.6K
Spread
0.003
Closes
31 Dec 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
19 Aug 2026, 01:33 UTC
External ID
703257
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.5% | 0.034 | 0.037 | 0.003 |
| No | 96.5% | 0.963 | 0.966 | 0.003 |
condition 0x747dc809fb79e1b05be09c42d6179459a58de2ef3e40f02484a4e1260f741f75
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.034 · ask 0.037
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling No
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
This forecast was recorded as invalid. Language "likely" is inconsistent with probability 0.01.
Historical evidence of official US confirmation of extraterrestrial life is virtually nonexistent, making such an event extremely rare.
question, description, event
Given the historical rarity of official confirmations of extraterrestrial life by the US government, and the lack of current evidence supporting an imminent confirmation, the probability remains very low.
Potential for new evidence or reports before the deadline Changes in government policy or public interest in extraterrestrial life
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC