MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$32.7M
Liquidity
$103.7K
Spread
0.001
Closes
31 Dec 2026 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
1105754
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| No | 100.0% | 0.999 | 1.000 | 0.001 |
condition 0x831493dce463d9adcad78c492f2cbec6ecdac31f4e8c5a894fdac68c130549d4
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.000 · ask 0.001
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
No historical base rate for Richard Grenell specifically leading Venezuela, as he is not a current or past leader and the political landscape is highly volatile.
question, description, event
Given the lack of a historical base rate for Grenell leading Venezuela and the highly uncertain political environment, a very low probability is assigned. The confidence is low due to insufficient evidence.
Political instability in Venezuela Potential for multiple candidates to emerge Uncertainty about Grenell's political future
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC