MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22.9M
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
559662
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.5% | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.5% | 0.994 | 0.995 | 0.001 |
condition 0x9d4f94f82de9d13ff1d3318639ab9000ee2533949e525343156f374fb00bd9b1
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.005 · ask 0.006
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
geopolitics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV -0.0 pts · Mixed
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no historical base rate available for Mark Cuban specifically, as he has not previously run for a major political office and the 2028 Democratic nomination is still far in the future.
question, description, event
Given the lack of historical base rates for Mark Cuban as a candidate and the uncertainty surrounding the political landscape for the 2028 election, I estimate a low probability of him winning the Democratic nomination. The confidence is moderate due to the thin evidence provided.
Uncertainty about other potential candidates for the nomination Uncertainty about Mark Cuban's actual candidacy and support within the Democratic Party
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC