MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18.1M
Liquidity
$770.2K
Spread
0.001
Closes
07 Nov 2028 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
559656
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.6% | 0.015 | 0.016 | 0.001 |
| No | 98.5% | 0.984 | 0.985 | 0.001 |
condition 0x61d9486c0f7e14ed98f3b177b6adcb3cd45646c92e8bbfbf209789b86472d4b6
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.015 · ask 0.016
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
There is no historical base rate provided for Wes Moore specifically, nor for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination process in this context.
question, description, event, resolution_source
Without specific historical data or current polling information, the estimate relies on a very low probability due to the uncertainty surrounding Wes Moore's candidacy and the competitive nature of the Democratic nomination process.
Lack of information on other potential candidates Uncertainty about Wes Moore's political trajectory and support Time remaining until the nomination, which could significantly alter the political landscape
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v2 · 18 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC