MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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NATO x Russia military clash by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1.5M
Liquidity
$44.4K
Spread
0.010
Closes
01 Jan 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
21 Aug 2026, 18:31 UTC
External ID
1090496
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25.5% | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.010 |
| No | 74.5% | 0.740 | 0.750 | 0.010 |
condition 0xf2bf04609e7458df56c9bb4b1e051286dea11da1c944bbc1dafbcc6b76904e52
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.250 · ask 0.260
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
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Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
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Provider issues: geopolitics: U.S. Department of State: U.S. Department of State feed returned no parseable items
evidence-v2 · f4c368260092