Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Volume

$2.1M

Liquidity

$141.9K

Spread

0.020

Closes

01 Oct 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC

External ID

2170255

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	8.0%	0.070	0.090	0.020
No	92.0%	0.910	0.930	0.020

condition 0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.070 · ask 0.090

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes12 ptsNo12 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Moderate
Identifiability: Strong
Coverage: 2 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 3
Freshness: 0.81
Missing: geopolitical

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

2026-08-20 · Corps of Engineers Modernizes Historic Fort Sill Barracks · Active
2026-08-20 · USS George Washington Celebrates Historic Aircraft Milestone · Active
2026-08-20 · As elections near, South Sudan risks new atrocity crimes, warns rights probe · Active
2026-08-19 · The clean energy transition needs land. Can it help restore it too? · Active

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Apr 30Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Apr 30Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Apr 30Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Apr 30Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Apr 30

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

Run npm run forecast