Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Outcomes

condition 0x7034c00a24f9edbf325fd5a0b9a63412e469fc8cd2aa9b060fb5ba8e10d7ebef

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.023 · ask 0.024

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality

Thin

Identifiability

Weak

Coverage

1 of 3 desired categories

Sources

1

Freshness

1.00

Missing

polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

• E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
• E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
• E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
• E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
• E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
• E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-31Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.