MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2.8M
Liquidity
$247.9K
Spread
0.010
Closes
31 Dec 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC
External ID
1633611
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.5% | 0.120 | 0.130 | 0.010 |
| No | 87.5% | 0.870 | 0.880 | 0.010 |
condition 0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.120 · ask 0.130
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast