
MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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MARKET ANOMALIES, RELATIONSHIPS & CORRELATIONS
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$60.7K
Spread
0.020
Closes
03 Jan 2027 UTC
Status
active
Resolution
Not provided
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 16:46 UTC
External ID
637910
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18.0% | 0.170 | 0.190 | 0.020 |
| No | 82.0% | 0.810 | 0.830 | 0.020 |
condition 0x15d2e66dcf1d63c5695d6d0e9e2f8e06dd246d00fd5dfc254f2b22baa33bfa1b
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.170 · ask 0.190
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
No evidence packet yet. Run `npm run evidence` then `npm run forecast -- --prompt=forecast-v3`.
No directional signals extracted.
No model prediction yet
Run npm run forecast