Brazil Presidential Election

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Volume

$2.2M

Liquidity

$530.3K

Spread

0.001

Closes

04 Oct 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 21:02 UTC

External ID

601835

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	0.1%	0.001	0.002	0.001
No	99.9%	0.998	0.999	0.001

condition 0xe7567eb9c84e1f859a7e18f1042c724dbf57c3cc0459b312bee22156a57e60ea

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.001 · ask 0.002

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes41 ptsNo41 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Thin
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-10-04Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.

Independent probability: 15.0%; model
Market probability: 0.2%; quote, Stage B
Estimated edge: +14.7 pts; M/ARC
Decision: PASS; M/ARC
Model confidence: 30.0%; model
Evidence quality: Thin · 0.65; source quality
Identifiability: Weak · 0.08; event coverage
Coherence: Unconstrained; related markets
Forecast confidence: 13.4%; M/ARC combination
Status: recorded; record

Base-rate reason

There is no relevant base rate available for Pablo Marçal's candidacy as there is no polling data, candidate status, or historical context provided in the evidence packet.