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← MarketsPerformanceHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Updated
18 Aug 2026, 16:10 UTC
Outcomes
| Label | Price | Bid | Ask | Spread |
|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| No | 99.9% | 0.998 | 0.999 | 0.001 |
condition 0x4914bfdd892a48c341b5e0f41ec10475a815f2277273110b16f95e21084bfe75
Paper trade
Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.
Hosted paper writes are disabled.
bid 0.001 · ask 0.002
Price history
From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.
Market flow
No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.
Notable actors
Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.
No recent public actors on this market.
Evidence
- Source quality
- Strong
- Identifiability
- Strong
- Coverage
- 3 of 3 desired categories
- Sources
- 4
- Freshness
- 0.11
- Missing
- none
Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.
Evidence timeline
- 2026-08-14 · 10-year Treasury yield · Contextual
- 2026-08-05 · Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Active
- 2026-07-14 · Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Active
- 2026-07-08 · Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Active
- 2026-07-01 · CPI (all urban consumers) · Active
- 2026-07-01 · Federal funds effective rate · Active
- 2026-07-01 · Unemployment rate · Active
- 2026-06-01 · Powell, Acceptance Remarks · Contextual
- E1 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Feb 24Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on January 20 and 28, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
- E2 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.20 · Apr 1Gross domestic product · GDP is lagging and weakly suited to a near-term FOMC decision.
- E3 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · Apr 14Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on February 9 and March 18, 2026 · Historical Fed document. Kept as context, not meeting-cycle evidence.
- E4 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.05 · May 26
Signals
Interpretations of evidence. Not trade instructions.
- growth
- + strongly positive
- GDP is a lagging quarterly growth observation. It is not a direct hawkish/dovish meeting signal.
- inflation
- + moderately hawkish
- Rising inflation is hawkish pressure, all else equal. This is a trend, not a surprise versus consensus.
- policy rate
- · mildly uncertain
- This is the current policy rate level/trend, not a forecast of the next meeting move.
- labor
- + moderately hawkish
- Falling unemployment may contribute hawkish pressure, all else equal. Surprise versus consensus is unknown.
- yields
- + mildly hawkish
- Yield moves are background. They do not identify a 25 vs 50 bps decision by themselves.
M/ARC Analysis
Research classification only. Does not place paper trades. Independent probability and model confidence come from the model. Edge, decision, evidence quality, identifiability, coherence, and combined confidence are M/ARC calculations. These scores are not statistically calibrated.
- Independent probability
- 25.0%
- model
- Market probability
- 0.1%
- quote, Stage B
- Estimated edge
- +24.8 pts
- M/ARC
- Decision
- PASS
- M/ARC
- Model confidence
- 40.0%
- model
- Evidence quality
- Strong · 0.73
- source quality
- Identifiability
- Weak · 0.00
- event coverage
- Coherence
- Unconstrained
- related markets
- Forecast confidence
- 33.4%
- M/ARC combination
- Status
- recorded
- record
Base-rate reason
There is no historical data or established base rate for the specific event of 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026, as this is a unique future scenario influenced by many unpredictable economic factors.
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026 · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.
E5 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · May 28Jefferson, Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.E6 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · May 29Bowman, A Framework for Practical Monetary Policy Decision Making · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.E7 · Federal Reserve speeches · contextual · suit 0.12 · Jun 1Powell, Acceptance Remarks · Prior meeting cycle. Official but not current-cycle identification.E8 · FRED · active · suit 0.40 · Jul 1CPI (all urban consumers) · CPI/PCE informs inflation pressure, not the exact hike size.E9 · FRED · active · suit 0.90 · Jul 1Federal funds effective rate · Current policy rate is the starting point for a meeting decision.E10 · FRED · active · suit 0.35 · Jul 1Unemployment rate · Labor trend informs stance, not the exact 25 vs 50 bps split.E11 · Federal Reserve · active · suit 0.85 · Jul 8Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026 · Current-cycle minutes is meeting-specific.E12 · Federal Reserve · contextual · suit 0.15 · Jul 14Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026 · Official but not a meeting statement, minutes, speech, or SEP.E13 · Federal Reserve speeches · active · suit 0.95 · Aug 5Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies · Current-cycle speech is meeting-specific.E14 · FRED · contextual · suit 0.40 · Aug 1410-year Treasury yield · Treasury yields are background, not meeting-specific identification.E15 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.E16 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.E17 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.E18 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.E19 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.E20 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-12-31Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.evidence-v2 · 95c36247a96a
Adjustments
Positive GDP growth observed (E2) suggests economic strength, which could influence rate cuts. Inflation is rising (E5), which typically leads to a hawkish stance rather than cuts. Unemployment is decreasing (E7), which may also deter rate cuts. The federal funds rate remains unchanged (E6), indicating uncertainty in monetary policy direction.
Evidence citations
E1, E2, E5, E6, E7, E10
Why M/ARC differs
The lack of a base rate for the specific event leads to a null base rate probability. Adjustments based on current economic indicators suggest a modest probability of 6 rate cuts, but confidence is lowered due to uncertainty in future economic conditions and Fed policy.
Uncertainty
Economic conditions can change rapidly, affecting the likelihood of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors. The evidence does not provide a clear trajectory for monetary policy leading into 2026.
openai · gpt-4o-mini · forecast-v3-joint · macroeconomics · 256e53bf6a12 · 18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC
Forecast history
- 18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC · 25.0% · PASS · forecast-v3-joint
- 18 Aug 2026, 17:53 UTC · 30.0% · ATTENTION · forecast-v3
