Trump out as President by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$1.9M

Liquidity

$124.7K

Spread

0.001

Closes

31 Aug 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 20:01 UTC

External ID

3231771

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
No	99.8%	0.997	0.998	0.001
Yes	0.3%	0.002	0.003	0.001

condition 0x225a5d5900068fcf5c0a9f4dc9cbaf84d492be94c71782fbcea0461cd935048c

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.997 · ask 0.998

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

No35 ptsYes35 pts

Market flow

No flow window yet. Run `npm run flow:ingest` then `npm run flow:aggregate`.

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

No recent public actors on this market.

Evidence

Source quality: Thin
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · 2026-08-31Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

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