Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$29.6M

Liquidity

$25.1K

Spread

0.004

Closes

01 Jun 2026 UTC

Status

active

Resolution

Not provided

Updated

21 Aug 2026, 18:31 UTC

External ID

2063130

Outcomes

Label	Price	Bid	Ask	Spread
Yes	0.6%	0.004	0.008	0.004
No	99.4%	0.992	0.996	0.004

condition 0x72af7d77091bd2209f78a45a13876beefc734768177dbc0c8171f515ba1a52a7

Paper trade

Simulation only. Buys fill at the ask, sells fill at the bid. No wallet.

Hosted paper writes are disabled.

bid 0.004 · ask 0.008

Price history

From M/ARC stored snapshots. Not a live Polymarket chart.

Yes1 ptsNo1 pts

Market flow

Last 1h. Public tape only. Not a trade command.

YES flow: $0.0
NO flow: $0.0
Whale imbalance: —
Large trades: 0
Unique actors: 0

Notable actors

Public wallet identifiers only. History is not copied into a position.

0x2737…3662
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
0x8ff3…6884
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
0x66b5…5bd9
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Selling Yes
0x8373…f0bc
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No
0xb0c8…fe7f
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration Insufficient sample · 24h CLV 0.1 pts · Large No
0x090a…0fa6
politics · insufficient resolved sample · calibration — · Large No

Evidence

Source quality: Thin
Identifiability: Weak
Coverage: 1 of 3 desired categories
Sources: 1
Freshness: 1.00
Missing: polling or campaign status

Source quality is provenance and freshness. Identifiability is whether those sources actually inform this event's outcome split. Coherence is checked separately against related markets.

Evidence timeline

E1 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Listed category · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E2 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Scheduled close · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E3 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Event context · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E4 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Market question · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E5 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Resolution criteria · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.
E6 · PARALLAX market record · contextual · suit 0.25 · Jun 1Resolution source · Market text describes the question; it does not identify the outcome.

Signals

No directional signals extracted.

M/ARC Analysis

No model prediction yet

Run npm run forecast